Profit warnings from the North West’s listed companies increased by 31% in 2022

• Listed companies in the North West issued 34 profit warnings in 2022, up from 26 in 2021
• Retailers in the region were most affected, with 10 warnings in 2022
• Warnings fell from eight to five quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2022, and were down from 15 in Q4 2021
• Over a third (36%) of UK-listed companies in consumer sectors issued a profit warning during the year

NORTH WEST, MONDAY 30 JANUARY 2023: Profit warnings issued by listed companies in the North West increased by 31%, from 26 in 2021 to 34 in 2022, according to EY-Parthenon’s latest Profit Warnings report.

The 2022 total was the North West’s highest since a pandemic-affected 2020 and was slightly higher than seen in 2008, during the global financial crisis, when 33 warnings were issued.

Similar to the region’s 2021 experience, retail was the North West’s most significantly affected sector in 2022, with a total of 10 retail profit warnings issued during the year. This was consistent with national trends, with the retail sector issuing the highest number of UK profit warnings.

Q1 2022 saw the highest volume of profit warnings in the North West last year, with 15 issued in total, while a quarter-on-quarter fall in warnings from eight to five in Q4 2022 was not enough to prevent a substantial year-on-year rise.

Sam Woodward, EY-Parthenon UK&I Turnaround and Restructuring Partner in the North West, said: “2022 has been a challenging year for businesses across the UK, including here in the North West, with economic headwinds significantly affecting costs, consumer spending habits, supply chains and more.

“The impact of the cost-of-living crisis left the retail sector and consumer-facing companies facing an array of challenges throughout 2022, which is reflected in the North West’s profit warning figures.

“Ongoing headwinds for consumer-focused businesses continue to create an uncertain outlook, particularly given the EY ITEM Club Winter Forecast’s expectation that a deeper recession than first anticipated appears likely. Furthermore, as stresses begin to intensify in other sectors throughout the UK, scenario planning will become increasingly important going forward.”

National profit warning figures

Across the UK, the number of profit warnings issued by UK-listed companies in 2022 increased by 50% year-on-year, with record levels of warnings citing rising costs.

In total, 305 profit warnings were issued in 2022, an increase of 102 from 2021 when 203 warnings were issued. Half (152) of the warnings issued in 2022 were due to rising costs – double the share in 2021. During the year, 17.7% of the UK’s 1,193 listed businesses issued a profit warning, equal to the proportion of companies that issued warnings during the global financial crisis in 2008.

In the second half of 2022, 169 warnings were issued which is the highest second-half total since 2015. In Q4 2022, 83 profit warnings were issued, 41% of which cited rising costs, while 24% were due to delayed or cancelled contracts, and 20% due to weaker consumer confidence.

After FTSE Retailers, the highest number of warnings in 2022 were issued by FTSE Travel and Leisure (25), FTSE Software and Computer Services (18), FTSE Industrial Support Services (17) and FTSE Personal Care, Drug and Grocery Stores (16).

In 2022, 31 listed companies issued their third consecutive profit warning in 12 months, compared to 23 in 2021. Of those warning for a third time in 2022, 13% have already gone through a restructuring process, 19% have breached covenants, and 35% have changed CEO or CFO as of mid-January 2023.

Consumer sectors dominated profit warnings in 2022

Over a third (36%) of UK-listed companies in consumer-facing sectors issued a profit warning in 2022, up from a fifth of companies warning in 2021. This included 48% of FTSE Retailers, 60% of FTSE Personal Care, Drug and Grocery Stores companies, and 30% of FTSE Food Producers. Increasing costs featured in 63% of consumer sector warnings, with 33% citing falling consumer confidence, 22% supply chain problems, and 20% labour market issues.

Sam Woodward continued: “Although festive trading was better than expected for many businesses, the bar was set low by exceptional levels of consumer sector profit warnings in 2022. The ‘golden quarter’, a vital period for consumer companies, included a winter World Cup along with the disruption from train and postal strikes. This backdrop created a further complex layer of challenges and opportunities in addition to ongoing cost, labour, inventory, and confidence issues for consumer-facing companies.

“Supermarkets appear to have been the main winners of Christmas 2022, while many omnichannel retailers managed to flex their offering to adapt to the impact of industrial action and performed well. However, as EY’s latest Future Consumer Index underlines, it will be critical for companies to keep adapting and reflecting customer priorities, which for most consumers in the short-term, will be a compelling price proposition.”

Meanwhile, warnings from FTSE Food Producers reached a 16-year high in 2022, most caused by the increasing challenge of passing on price increases. The sector, which has faced unprecedented supply chain and inflationary pressures, is now dealing with mounting financial pressure.

Sam Woodward added: “The challenges for food producers don’t look set to ease significantly in 2023. Although energy prices have fallen back from their 2022 peak, they remain historically high and ingredient prices and supply problems still affect the sector. Although food is one of the most resilient areas of consumer spending, it’s not immune to corporate distress, especially in discretionary categories. It is vital that companies focus their efforts on products that match consumers’ new priorities and look at holistic cost reduction to address input and labour cost issues.”